Timing the market – Real Estate Slow Stochastic

By Spencer Barron | Published: January 5, 2007

Just for fun, I wanted to take the pricing data stats from my previous post about market timing and apply a slow stochastic to the prices.

Here’s essentially how they work with stocks.

stochastic example google

On the lower part of the image is an example of a slow stochastic. A buy signal is interpreted when the %k (green line) crosses up over the %d (white line). This is most important when value is crossing up from 30. A sell signal is the opposite. When %k is crossing down over %d from 75 (numbers on left). Go ahead and ignore the right numbers and red line for now. Essentially stochastics are trailing indicators of price trends. Trading decisions should never be made entirely from an indicator. It’s just an illustration of a trend over a time period. Depending on the time period you’re looking at, long-term and short-term trends can be identified.

Now, that being said. Here’s a slow stochastic showing short term (seasonal) market trends for the Denver Real Estate Market.

denver real estate sales stochastic

The stochastic demonstrates the change in price trends

Read More »

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Denver Sales Statistics – Trying to time the Market? When to sell and when to buy.

By Spencer Barron | Published: January 5, 2007

Of course, the standard Realtor response is ‘it’s always a good time to sell’. I’ve even heard agents say that the holidays have no effect on sales. I personally think that is just a sales pitch to make them look good, because the statistics are fairly clear. It definitely looks cyclical to me.

If you’re looking for a serious answer, though, you want it based on fact. Buyers and sellers don’t care if you closed a deal this month, they just want to know the truth about when is the best time to buy and sell a home. I’ve been reviewing the year end statistics for 2006. I’m of course looking in order to give my clients a better understanding of what to expect next year but some things are jumping out at me. We see DOM reaching a new high in December for Denver as a whole. But let’s focus on the topic of market timing. First off, at what time of year do home sellers get the highest price?

Denver Home Sales

These are the average home prices for Denver over the last 3 years. You’ll notice that Read More »

Posted in Denver Real Estate, General Interest, statistics | Comments closed

Real Estate Goals for 2007 Group Writing Project

By Spencer Barron | Published: January 5, 2007

BiggerPockets is hosting a real estate goal writing project to kick off 2007. Oh, I know, by telling everyone my goals I’ll be motivated by the fear of failing in the sight of my peers. It’s all so Anthony Robbins. I’m terrible with goals. I’ll probably just pick the goals I like off other people’s posts. After all, if someone else had a better goal than my own and we both succeeded, I would still be the loser. You follow? What if by failing last year’s goals, I’m actually reducing my self-esteem for the following year? It could be a never-ending spiral. Maybe I should start my goals with some easy things just to build some momentum.

  1. ‘Take ten’ – minutes each morning to pet my wife’s cats, sip my coffee, watch the sun come up (I’m never up that early)…whatever I want before I start working.
  2. Chew my food – My wife says I eat too fast. It comes from growing up in a large family. Seven people at the table, six servings of dessert. (And I love dessert.)
  3. Don’t go to work - I know what you’re thinking, it’s the whole ‘if you’re doing what you love’ thing, but that’s not it at all. I sat in various offices with those flickering fluorescent lights for the last ten years. Be in at 8:30, half-hour lunch, “We need this done by Monday but we can’t afford the overtime right now.” NO MORE! ….oh and maybe just a touch of “if your love what you’re doing….”
  4. Pollute the Blogmos - Read something good everyday and write at least one mediocre post every other day.
  5. Fend off Alzheimer’s – They say learning a language helps. I recently purchased Pimsleur’s French course before a trip to St. Barths. I’ve only been through 3 of the 48 CDs. I figure a feeling of self achievement will help with lots of other areas of life, including real estate. Real estate isn’t that complicated; I feel like my brain is beginning to atrophy.
  6. Update my image – Maybe it’s time to get some of those cheesy broker photos done. While I’m at it, I should improve my website and consolidate some of the tools I’m currently paying for into one place I could be proud of.
  7. !Warning – Shameless self-promotion follows! No really, everything for me next year will be about self-promotion. I’d like to double my sphere of influence and my client base.
  8. Make a Living – How about some Cash Flow – The one downfall with real estate is that to succeed, you’re going to have spend a lot of money. I spent more money on advertising this year than I made in half of 2005. You always know you’re two months away from being broke. I’m looking to find a way to create a more steady income this year with steady advertising and perhaps some ancillary businesses.

The theme for this year would be to find balance between the different facets of my life in order to operate at a peak level all year. We’ll see how it goes.

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Why Johnny Can't Code and How to Help Him

By CurtisBarron | Published: January 3, 2007

Cant Code?When Bill Gates was 13, a parents group enabled his school to buy a Teletype machine and computer time on a remote GE computer that used the BASIC programming language; he, Paul Allen, and others became intrigued by the technology, including obviously the immediate feedback they got from programming in an easy programming language. He went on to learn other languages, found Microsoft and become a gazillionare.

Does that mean that if your sons or daughters learn about computers using BASIC that they too will earn googol dollars? Well… probably not. If not, might they understand the computer better if they do? Well…. maybe.

Being interested in programming by profession and by inclination, I came across by sheer chance an article in Salon.com entitled “Why Johnny Can’t Code” by David Brin. By 12/31/06 it had attracted 297 comments and over 300 blog reactions. Read More »

Posted in Education, Guest post, Programming, Technology | Comments closed

FSBO – Creepy home for sale

By Spencer Barron | Published: January 2, 2007

You know that creepy home you’ve always wanted? It’s for sale.

backofhouseinteriorshot

This “gem” is from a recent Craigslist post by an owner trying to FSBO his home. I’m always on the lookout for a fix-n-flip, but I think I’m going to pass on this one.

sideofhouse2

It’s important in real estate investing to know your limits. Figure out the type and size of project that you would be willing to take on before you start looking. Otherwise, you’ll rush yourself and overlook obvious things just because you’re so anxious to get started.

I bought a creepy home once. It sent chills down my spine every time I walked through the door. I would buy a lot of different homes, homes that need work, homes with structural damage, homes with bad neighbors or even backing to a busy street. But from now on, I’m going to draw the line at creepy.

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Posted in Denver Real Estate, FSBO, General Interest, Investing | Comments closed

What if buying a house was like buying a car?

By Spencer Barron | Published: December 30, 2006

What if there were no real estate agents. Buyers and sellers could meet and hash it out. Let the smarter person win. Let the more educated person take advantage of the lesser. Would it be better or worse? Well I was thinking of what buying a car is like since that’s the second biggest purchase we make in a lifetime and we don’t have representation for that. hmm..

If buying a house was like buying a car?

  • You would just accept that when you walked out of closing on your new house, your home’s value dropped 10%.
  • Your salesperson would add costs to your purchase if you wanted the home cleaned and give it a fancy name like “detailed.”
  • Home values would come out once a year in a blue book for the public.
  • A second black book would come out each year for salespeople with the values that the brokers, builders and investors should pay.
  • Instead of the HUD, seller’s property disclosure, and square footage disclosure, you’d get a wink, a knod, and a receipt.
  • Once you established a price with the salesperson, a second obviously superior salesman would come out to finalize the deal. He would scrap what was agreed upon and play the “I’m going to write a number on a piece of paper” game.

I can’t help but think that agents came into existence out of neccessity. The first ‘agent’ was probably a friend who happened to know more about the subject and didn’t want to see his friend get taken. Sellers would take advantage of first time buyers because they had been through it before and knew the ins and outs. Buyers would make low offers without even being prequalified and waste everyone’s time. Any way you look at it, buying a home is often ten times more expensive than buying a car. You could be paying for the home for the next thirty years; it’s certainly worth having some real estate expert in your pocket.

I would even pay something to have a buyer’s representative when buying a car. Could give me comparable sales, show me what else is available and consumer reports articles on the car I wanted. They could check title and the ‘car history report’. Most of all, they could make sure I get the most from my negotiation, then show up for closing to make sure the paper work all checked out.

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Where to spend my marketing budget?

By Spencer Barron | Published: December 29, 2006

Internet advertising is such a waste of money. Definitely overpriced compared to the returns I get from other types of advertising. Not so much my own websites- they have their use, it’s the Internet lead sources that will no longer be receiving checks from me. Lead sources like Justlisted.com, Realestate.com, HomeGain, and the myriad of other companies who are pawning off information that they collected at one of their many landing pages. According to the 2006 National Association of Realtors Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers (pdf), three quarters of home buyers use the Internet in their home search. With this premise in mind, you would think an agent should place a large portion of his/her marketing budget into the Internet. That’s where the buyers are, right? Yes and no. They are there, but they really don’t want to be bothered.

People love the anonymity of the Internet. They don’t want to be sold. They just want something that you’ve got. They hate to leave their information, so they will not, if they can avoid it.

‘They’re not that into you’

Unfortunately for agents, real estate is rarely an impulse purchase. Read More »

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Theme change at Spencerbarron.com

By Spencer Barron | Published: December 23, 2006

Being snowed in, I finally found some time to change out my theme to more of what I wanted. I’m going with this Cutline theme by Chris Pearson.

It seems to be fairly well supported, and when I look at the templates it almost makes sense. Well, at least in that I recognize a few English words. This is good because I’m hoping I can make a few more tweaks to make it exactly what I want.

Here are the resources that I’ve found most helpful in putting my page together.

  1. WordPress – Everything you need
  2. The Cutline theme page – Great simple theme that really isn’t that simple
  3. MyBlogLog – Great social network of fellow bloggers
  4. FeedBurner – To track your subscriptions to your blog
  5. Google Analytics – Track where your viewers came from, how they got there and what they looked at.
  6. Technorati – Blog bookmarking page

There are many other great tools I’ve come across so far that seem to appeal to the entry level bloggers, but these seem to be the ones I keep going back to. I still have a lot more changes to make before I’ll be satisfied with it, but it’s a start.

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How to sell your home quickly for top dollar.

By Spencer Barron | Published: December 22, 2006

“How do I sell my home quickly for top dollar?” I often talk to people who aren’t sure whether they want to use a broker or not. They’re not sure if a broker can get them any higher of a value than if they sold it themselves. Personally, I think you can get a slightly higher price using a broker because of the exposure you gain from the MLS. Not to mention you make the process easier on yourself. But if you’re hell-bent on selling it yourself here’s a few tips that will help you get top dollar.

Read More »

Posted in Denver Real Estate, FSBO | Comments closed

Blizzard of 2006 – Buried in Snow and loving it.

By Spencer Barron | Published: December 21, 2006

Denver blizzard

I love the snow, and Denver blizzards are so much nicer than the East Coast and Midwest blizzards of my youth. The snow is fun for the first couple of days, but it wears on you after a couple of days.

I love to look out and see a smooth white blanket over everything. It appeals to my desire for order. All the mismatching colors and hard lines created by the mismatched architecture now have a unifying theme. I curse the first person to walk through my nice snow. I know it’s just a couple of days before someone will stumble through my yard thoughtlessly leaving their stumbling footprints and breaking up the serenity. Read More »

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