The real estate market usually is subject to certain cyclical phenomena that vary by area. In Denver, winter usually brings a slowdown in the real estate market, marked by slightly lower prices and sales volume. Typically as early as January or February the seasonal market begins to turn around. Well..not this year.

This chart is a stochastic representation of real estate sales prices over the last couple years. I love technical analysis, almost to a fault. In evaluating stocks, charts like these help traders identify trends and compare the current market price to past prices to identify opportunities. To keep it simple, when the blue line crosses up through the red line, this marks the best time to buy in the market. When the blue line crosses down through the red line that’s when you should sell. When prices go one way when the stochastic suggests another, that’s when there might be a trend reversal coming.

Imagine how many REALTOR friends you would have if you bought and sold that often. Thankfully, this model is usually only applied to stocks. A stock’s liquidity makes it possible for it to be bought and sold in shortened time spans. While it is a poor tool for evaluating the length of a trend and potential buying opportunities, it’s great at determining cycles and safer entry and exit points.

Here are a few things you might notice by examining your market in this way.
1. When is typically the best time of year to buy a home? If we look at the chart, it becomes obvious that the best time to buy a home would be between August and February. Of course, if you look at the actually sales stats, you would notice that August might just be the best month to buy a home during the year because not only is there a slight drop in pricing, there is a larger supply of homes to chose from. Deep down, I would never suggest that you rely on the time of year as the number one reason to buy or sell a home, but it always helps to know where you’re at in the cycle so you know what to expect.

2. How has the credit crunch affected home sales in Denver? From my observations, the availability of credit for lower income and even middle income buyers with lower credit scores has significantly slowed the market. Notice how the chart shows a longer, flatter curve all the way into April (2008) compared to previous years with the market bottoming between December and February. This means sellers can expect continued pressure on high home prices. It doesn’t mean things aren’t selling, it just means your going to need to work harder, show better and price lower than you used to.

3. How long will this last? Who really knows. I wouldn’t expect to see stability return next year at this time without significant improvements in the economy. (I here Microsoft wants more sun and is considering Denver…not really but that’s the instant boom I’m looking for.) Additionally, if REALTOR’s out there still think next year will be better, think again. Foreclosures are driving the market down by far out weighing the slowing local economy. Until lender owned inventory starts drying up, expect more of the incredible buying opportunities and poor selling prices. That being said, I’m keeping an eye on the price of ownership when compared to renting, the ratio of home prices to median income, the economy and inflation. There are encouraging signs and improving signs in many of these statistics.

If you saw one of my previous posts regarding the real estate bubble, you would know I don’t believe Denver is a true bubble candidate and thus has a shorter fall. I would expect that prices would continue to decline through Spring of 2009 finally bottoming during that Summer. I wouldn’t expect an immediate recovery either. Prices will likely stabilize before racing back up. Denver homes will start to look pretty affordable by spring of 2010. To arrive at that, you have to make a few leaps of faith regarding inflation, demand and foreclosures peaking this summer. But I’m sure I’m still more accurate than NAR’s method.
Sometimes though, an opportunity can come along that would likely never come again. Housing is very inconsistent and resists almost every opportunity to have an absolute value price. Most great opportunities will appear only for a couple of days before a savvy waiting investor would pounce. At this moment there are hundreds of homes in Denver that didn’t last a week on the market before being snatched up. If it’s a good deal, it’s a good deal. Who cares if you could of saved $5000 here or there when you get what you want and it has a great long term outlook either for you and your family, your pocket book or both?

Not to mention, the smart money loves these down turns. They need them to get into positions they couldn’t normally get into in strong upswings.

A long bottom can represent a real opportunity for some people in some areas. Of course, in most instances, we don’t usually refer to ourselves as the smart money, though we all wish it to be true.

So what have I learned so far? I’ve learned enough C++ to know that I hate when things become very tedious. That really helped with pushing me towards learning more about Ruby and Ruby on Rails. I was able to use C++ for an actual application though. I wrote a parser to convert an online directory of addresses to a comma delimited file so it could be used to create mailing labels. Pretty exciting stuff isn’t it.

I learned more HTML and CSS. No time wasted there. Besides all the CSS you come across playing around with blogs, you can also use it to help with designs of actual websites. Who knew? Hopefully, my site, ValueRents.com will be online sooner than later. That’s the website I’ve been working on in a round about manner for a couple of years. I dusted the concept off and developed a frontend for the site but still need to plug in some sort of backend. One day ValueRents.com will help landlords find the best properties then manage their rental properties from one location. I apparently have a few more things to figure out before it all comes together. I might make some attempts to redevelop the theme for this site. How hard could it be?

And to wrap it all up, a few classes in database design and SQL. I got to tell you, there’s nothing like bending raw data to your every whim. Hours of fun. I can’t even begin to explain how happy I am to finally stop using Excel to run calculations on the thousands of foreclosure records I have. Mysql and SQL Server are so much more fun. So maybe I can start using Excel for what it was intended–spreadsheets and quick and dirty charts.

So that’s what I’ve been up to while the real estate megalith cracks and crumbles. I’ll have more on that in coming posts. I can’t help but think though, where there are problems, there is an opportunity. I haven’t seen such great deals in Denver real estate since I moved here 8 years ago. Hopefully, the web development education I’m giving myself will help me take advantage of the dozens of opportunities I see every day. Time will tell.

the “deal with the owner is independent of the owners deal with the bank.”  … “Generally speaking, the rights of the lender are greater than the rights of the tenant.”

Seems reasonable enough but I can’t help but wonder about the fairness of that. 

 What about a tenants right to quiet enjoyment?

   I wonder if the tenant shouldn’t contact an attorney.  Wouldn’t the tenant have a claim of non-performance?

Regardless, if you or someone you know in Colorado are facing problems with foreclosure, you should definitely contact an attorney if you have any questions about your rights.

You should also take advantage of the Colorado Foreclosure Hotline at 1-877-601-HOPE (4673).

This is how it would work.  You would pick some area that seems ripe with a financially viable, tech savvy group of people in need of information and hopefully a new home.  What type of information would you feed them?….oh…everything of course.  You see, you would figure out everything your ‘peeps’ are interested in and pipe it to them fresh by blog and RSS feed.  High School player bios, the latest track results, and who’s cat had kittens….people love that stuff right?   All the good stuff.  They wouldn’t be able to get enough, so they would come back without having to be prompted by other means.  Of course you would go neighborhood viral worse than like little Johnny fresh out of kindergarten.

 People would stumble across the site on Google and many others would find it on flyers/mailing that would eventually be phased out once the web presence took over.  Then,  your constant craving for the information I have would keep you coming back like some sort crack head.  You wouldn’t be able to get enough.   Of course all the while I would be subliminally establishing myself as an expert in your area.  The perfect person to sell  your home and the best resource for a buyer.

While all of this sounds great, my gut feeling on this is that it’s not quite possible/likely yet.  I personally am not pursuing this approach to blogging locally.  I am working on some approaches to this but an online newsletter it shan’t be.  I can imagine a client being a little put off by the fact that you just decided that your going to insert yourself into their lives.  I’m on record as saying I don’t think you jack black bencasino gratuites frcasino island blackjackblack jack daveycasino bonus de bienvenueregle jeu roulettewww traiteur casinobonus gratuitsjeu roulette casinojouer video pokerbonus gratuites de casinojack black spider mancomment gagner à la roulette en ligneregle de la rouletteslot machine gametelecharger jeu poker texasjouer seven card stud gratuitesle poker en ligne en françaispoker en ligne bruelentrainement poker gratuitesjouer au poker sans telechargerle poker apprendre à jouerpoker le jeujeux de poker sur internetpoker gratuites sans telechargementworld poker gratuitesjeu de pokerjeu poker freewaretelecharger poker holdpoker en ligne argent virtuelpoker holdem gratuitesjeu de carte pokerjeux poker tour en lignepoker online argentjeux 7 card stud gratuitespoker en ligne francaistour de pokerjouer au poker onlinejeu javalogiciel poker texas holdemjeux pokerjouer poker en ligne gratuitementtournoi texas holdemtelecharger jeu poker gratuitesstrip poker gratuitementpoker sans internetle jeu du pokersalle poker onlinepoker source onlinepoker texas gratuites can be a successful hyper-local blogger unless you live there, have kids, grew up there or have some other attachment that people can use to relate to you on a personal level.  Maybe you should open your office there.

I have some concerns about the hyper-local approach because it seems to be a house of cards built on a card table. 

The card table is the premise that you are filling a need.   The idea that people will continue to choose area experts since everyone charges the same.  The idea that an agent that sells in one subdivision is not qualified to sell in another.    Can you imagine the tedium involved in putting this together?  Tedious as it is, it is possible it could pay off.  Especially if you’re making the comparison to established agents who are using the old fashioned methods successfully but will that transfer well to the Internet? 

Here’s a few more random thoughts, questions and observations that should be considered before starting down this path.  I wouldn’t say you shouldn’t attempt this approach, but rather, I would attempt to resolve these conflicts or plan ways to address the potential issues early in your development process.

1. Brokers need the people,  but people don’t need you.  Is what you got fresh enough to be news to them?  Would they even care to read your stuff?
2. There’s a small matter of trust and privacy. “I don’t want you taking pictures of my kids or anything.”
3. Who Voted you Mayor?  Would they feel you need their permission?
4. This sounds like an incredible amount of work.   Is it sustainable?
5. Will this create a steep barrier to entry?
6. Who is better positioned to do this same job?  Will they take you out at the knees next year?
7. Will the shrinking real estate margins crimp your projected profit?
8. Will this work if you’re competing against an established farm agent?
9. Where do people currently get the information you will offer?
10. How much will it cost to market the blog or will you rely on Google to deliver people to you from the subdivision you’re targeting?

Correct me if I’m wrong, I’ve seen lots of attempts at local blogging but haven’t seen anyone suggest that they’re ‘killing’ it with this method.  A deal or 2 here and there doesn’t deem the method an absolute success.  Even the most successful national bloggers don’t put up numbers that match top farm agent numbers.  While there might be 20 agents makeing the high 6 figures in a big city, the big time local bloggers aren’t among them.   It makes me think the hyper-local approach is over-hyped and merely a new topic for a real estate conferences to ponder and theorize about. 

I personally have researched many of the agents locally that blog as their primary rain maker and it really isn’t that impressive.  It’s a living.  It’s not a surprise really,  I feel they get a fair return on their invested time and money but I’m personally willing to trade money for time if it gets me to the same point or better.   

  The method doesn’t approach the numbers that standard farming brings in.   I’m left with the thought, that if you don’t have any ideas to generate business and you have a very limited budget, this can’t hurt.  I’m sure there are tons of agents out there that have the time to focus on this.   The 2 biggest problems with this is that the Internet hasn’t achieved a true hyper-local capability yet though I would expect that to change.  Second,  I’m not convinced that people would be any more likely to use you than the other guy that got some face time with the potential clients. 

As for the house of cards analogy, once you have it all built and up and running, people using you and all…how easy would it be to knock down.  Will you be able to keep up or will competition take over where you left off.

  Here’s a tip.  Your clients probably Googled you.  Blogging is key to your business because people use the Internet for research.  Especially so when it comes to real estate.  You have a chance to create your own spin, your own buzz.  Potential clients get to know you anonymously  and make decisions about your expertise and qualifications prior to making contact.  Even after meeting you they may want to learn more about you.   

 Just a few thoughts.  Here’s some further reading on the subject:

• Seth’s Blog - Advice for real estate agents (quit now!)
• Jeff Brown - House Agents — Wanna Start the New Year Kickin’ Ass? Here’s How  - My apologies to Jeff for not getting back to the subject sooner.  I had to ‘wrap my mind around it’ some more.
• Life that Pops - Everything new is old

 There is a lot said there and in the comments that might trigger some new thoughts on the subject for you. 

Today, that language has become RPGIV, reflecting continuing enhancements that make it an extremely effective language for manipulating data. You will not likely use it to write an operating system or make pictures dance around on your screen, but computers used by tens of thousands of businesses have it as their base computer language, generating reports and entering and displaying data.

The future of RPG today, though, is in doubt, even though programs totaling billions of lines of code are running today on hundreds of thousands of machines. This is a reflection of the state of computer science today, as well as an example of the fact that, too often, what is often serviceable and effective is set aside.for what is fashionable.

In programming, the fashion today is centered around the Web, and languages associated with the Web - Java, Perl, Python, Ruby, C++, Visual Basic, Javascript, and so on - visually oriented languages, for the most part. Can RPG do the Web? Yes, but you have to jump through hoops to make it work. There is no facility in RPG that allows it to use HTML as effortlessly as its customary screen display files. And there are forms of RPG from IBM and ASNA that resemble VB and Java with their Windows displays, but they are by no means nearly as ubiquitous as VB. The kids learn VB or teach themselves Java or C- they do not learn RPG. It is not sexy; RPG is like its cousin COBOL - they are functional business languages, but Windows and Web processing have to be grafted onto them to work on Windows or the Web. RPG can be used in conjunction with Java on the AS/400; it works quite well to use Java for the user interface and RPG for the core business logic; but people tend want to forget the RPG and use something (anything) else.

In short, all RPG has going for it is that it works. It runs on a machine (the AS/400 or iSeries or Series i) with a database (DB2) incorporated into the hardware- no extra database software, though it can run SQL (and RPG can call and run SQL statements). The operating system (OS/400) makes even Linux seem to run flaky by comparison, without the need for systems administrators, and the machine it runs on seems to run forever. There is no such thing as the “blue screen of death”; at least, I haven’t seen one in almost 30 years. (For a long time, Microsoft ran its business on the AS/400, well into the latter half of the 1990’s.) RPG can call C++ and Java programs, and they can call RPG routines. It can also run HTML, with a little bit of extra effort.

Perhaps RPG and the AS/400 are too good at what they do. You can run 35-year old RPG programs unchanged using RPGIV. (Try running 1980’s vintage GWBASIC programs unchanged using VB. It likely will not be easy, perhaps not even possible.) Planned obsolescence is not implemented, as what seems to be true in the programs of Microsoft and other software producers. (And frankly, I believe IBM has done the right thing, purely on principle. Programming should be done to benefit those who pay for it to be done, not to entertain the programmer. Change the program if you need to improve or fix it, not just for the sake of change.)

RPG is being taught by very few schools; some community colleges have given up on their RPG-AS/400 courses due to lack of interest. Few new programmers are being educated. The RPG programming population is getting grayer and grayer. Though it can be used quite elegantly to produce powerful data-crunching programs, the young are not learning it. Crunching data is not entertaining. On RPG forums the topic of the future of RPG is argued quite violently; perhaps it will survive as long as people care about it. It would be a shame to see vast numbers of programs rewritten because people no longer care to use this highly functional language.

I find it difficult to believe computer science grads find it difficult to learn a language that I could learn in a very short time under less than ideal conditions. (I typed my first programs into the computer on 96-column punch cards and fed them into a card reader.) I have read opinions of obviously educated people who feel that the RPG logic cycle and the use of RPG “level break” handling (of processing when a designated field changes in value) is incredibly complex; I read about it in my RPG textbook, said “Hey - that’s pretty cool” and didn’t need to give it any further study. It is incomprehensible that these people find it difficult. Evidently, it’s sometimes easier to learn something when you know nothing about the topic than when you think you know something about it and your mind is halfway frozen shut.

I wish I had a solution; far wiser heads have yet to come up with a solid solution for the growing shortage of RPG programmers. But it would be such a waste if someone doesn’t.

 Guest Post - Curtis Barron

 With the rise in foreclosures and more agents being the first people to enter recently vacant homes after and possibly during a foreclosure, a little education can go along way for your own safety and the safety of your clients.  Going into homes before they’re ‘trashed out’ can mean just about anything these days.

If you know me, you know that this is what I do.  I want to know why and how, so, I did a little checking in the MLS and public records.

  The unit I saw had previously sold for $204k but was now listed at $60,000 in a building that every unit had previously sold for over $150k.  A few even sold for up to $250k.   What makes it suspicious is that there were no real upgrades to justify 204k.  In fact, the value today is probably about $80,000 if it was cleaned out.   No electrical or plumbing upgrades to the building.  Some newer windows and a few new light fixtures in the hallway.  That’s it.    Now it is possible to get $160,000 for this type of unit if it’s done right.

 Some developers who do a killer job on the conversions do make top dollar.  They add roof top decks, change the curb appeal, improve all the common elements and put about $30,000-$60,000 into each unit upgrading the kitchen, bathrooms and finishes.  The units I saw at this place weren’t like that.   For this building though, the appraiser would have to be blind not to notice that the doors were missing handles and nothing that was described in the MLS was actually completed. (business center, fitness room, etc..) 

It’s painful to see because you really don’t get a redo on a condo conversion.  It’s to late.  The building is still a dump.  Can you imagine trying to coordinate an overhaul of the building with 24 different owners.  It’s going to be a blight to the neighborhood for a long time.

They bought the property for $2.9 mill and sold the units for a total of $4.8.   15 days after they closed on the property, they were already selling them.  6 at a time.  Many of the buyers bought multiple units.   They were 80% sold out in 2 months.  In the middle of winter during 2005-2006.  That was not a great time for selling condos,  even nice ones.

It seems like if you wanted to make 1.8 million fast the dirty way, you could get people who were going to file bankruptcy purchase these properties using stated 80/20 loans.  The paper values would support the apparent protection of the 1st lender and the 2nd would be carried back by the seller.  It’s all just funny money right?  Seller kicks back some money to the buyers for the ’service’.  The buyers then try to rent the properties out and never make a payment.  When it all goes south, they just walk and let the properties foreclose.   Now, I’m not saying that is what happened here, but I do think it happens.

I know there are people who believe that the only one they’re hurting when they do this is the lender.  That frustrates me.  It gives the entire industry a bad name.  Especially when a lot of people need to work together to decieve the lender.  It’s no wonder that the agent that listed the property had his license just long enough to do this deal then leave the business by going inactive.  The building had been listed as having an agent owner so he must have been involved.  I wonder what his employing broker was thinking.  Probably wasn’t.  I wonder if the buyers weren’t actually in on it and had their credit ruined by an investor who made a lot of promises he didn’t deliver on.

I’d love to give you the address and name the players…but that seems to get people in trouble.  No, I can’t flat out say that there is some fraud involved but it makes you wonder doesn’t it.

1. Why Johnny Can’t Code and How to Help Him. by Curtis Barron  - What!  I find it hard to believe that my Dad’s post is the most popular post on my blog.  It’s actually kind of painful.  I wonder how much this speaks to the fact that niche expertise is the real strength of a search engine.  Thanks for the contribution Dad.
2. Money Magazine – Buyer’s agents Co-op and how to get a better deal buying or selling a home.  Ah yes, the outcome of my complaint about Money printing misleading  information about the Denver real estate market.
3. Thanks to Blogs. My only guess here is that this is the intersection of people searching my general interest and personal categories.  And of course, this post seems to have a penchant for automated spam.
4. What should be in a Comparative Market Analysis and how long will it be accurate?   This was my take on how to evaluate the value of a property, seems to be popular with investors and appraisers.
5. Apple’s New iphone, up to the hype?  Nothing like mentioning some pop culture to turn up the heat.
6. The Top Ten Most Common Complaints about Homes for Sale – Useful Feedback.  This is my take on the feedback you get, if any when selling a house.
7. Most Brokerage Business models don’t benefit the Agent.  It’s true!
8. Zillow Returns Power to the People with Site updates.  I still love Zillow.  I don’t think they’re going to make any real money for a long time but they’re headed in the right direction.   Oh, and I love the fact that if you mention Zillow in any post, there is a high likelihood that the hard working Drew Meyers will stop by. 
9. Where to spend my marketing budget?  This has become a lot more popular over the last 2 months.  I think agents are rethinking were they’re putting their money.
10. Blizzard of 2006 – Buried in Snow and loving it.  What I love most about Denver is that the sun comes out after it snows.  As long as the suns out, you probably don’t even need a coat.  It’s just when the sun goes down…. Brrrr…

And a few honorable mentions.

• Most Denver homes are overpriced.  I attempted to illustrate the difference between the list price and the sale price and drive home the importance of some due diligence on the part of the buyer. 
• Buying a home? Think before making your first offer. My opinion on what a buyer needs to think about before making an offer on a home.I truly hope people find my writing useful, informative and perhaps even entertaining on some level.   Thanks for reading.

1.  You are an investor with a long term view to acquire properties that should appreciate during the next cycle while cash flowing in the short term.   Great investors don’t buy in hot markets, they buy when no one else wants to.  In Denver, one of the best deals of this type are in close proximity to current and planned transit oriented developments all across the city. Check out the Overland neighborhood of Denver and the University Hills neighborhood.

2.  You are not a current home owner and have good credit.  You sir/or maam are a hot commodity.  You should take advantage of that.  The smart money may realize that the current low interest rates on mortgages + downward pressure on home values = A great deal.   You have a chance to ‘lock in’ a payment for your living space.  Your rent in many areas of Denver is expected to rise along with inflation and eventually demand.  Inflation when you own a home is a good thing.  In many ways, inflation can actually help the home owner.  The payments over time ’seem’ more affordable as competitive wages adjust to the cost of living changes.  In addition, home values traditionally keep pace with inflation over the long term.  By picking the right area, you can combine the gains from inflation with actual appreciation that comes when an area is revitalized (Gates redevelopment in Southeast Denver, Platte Park) or business moves into the area (Check out the Fitzsimmons area of Aurora).

3.  You need a place to live.  Sure you could rent a place, but you’ll soon be back in  the same situation again.  Many homeowners will now be open to leasing a home with the option to buy it.  This is rarely an option in a hot market.

4.  Your current home is inadequate.  Often, you just need to make a move.  In this case, the overall market just doesn’t matter.  When you sell a home and buy a home in a similar market, it’s likely that the value that you think you are losing is balanced when you consider both sides of the home equation.  The increased inventory can make it hard to sell but it can be also give you more choice when its your turn to buy.

5.  You just want a good deal.  Good deals are to be had if you know where to look.  If you want a good deal, buy a home in a market that is continuing to appreciate even now.  For example, Denver Highlands up 10%.  “But I thought this was a buyer’s market”.  Or buy in an area that you expect to recover first such as DU, Rosedale, Washington Park.  These are all close to the popular parks, nightlife, and of course Denver University while still having easy access to downtown and the Denver Tech Center.  Trying to locate a foreclosure deal in one of these neighborhoods is highly unlikely.  Rather than looking elsewhere at foreclosure in depreciating areas, buy the best VALUE in the best neighborhoods that you can afford.  Now that would be a good deal.

HQHomes.com implemented a new website that has one of the better IDX solutions (just shy of a custom solution) available for searching for homes in the area.  We feel that real estate search is the cornerstone to any long term success for a real estate website.  Considering what our search looked like originally.  This is a huge step up.   One of the features I find the most useful is an RSS feed for the paticular search that you want.  We hope our clients find that this search is better than any currently in use by a competing brokerage.

HQHomesBlog is going to be the outlet for much of our statistical research on different Denver neighborhoods.  We also plan to let this be our up to date platform to give our view of the markets.   We have been delivering a newspaper to some parts of Denver with some good response but find  that most people don’t have the time or desire to open a good old fashioned newspaper.  By the time they look at it, it’s out of date.  The blog will hopefully fill this gap while decreasing some of our costs. 

One of the better side effects of blogging, besides traffic to the website, is the fact that readers and those interested in our company can get a better feel for the neighborhoods they’re interested in and the agents that work in those neighborhoods.  

I’ll be a frequent contributor on the site.  Feel free to stop by and give your opinion of what we are doing.