Here’s and example of the Green Valley Subdivision in Denver, Colorado

Notice that once current home values cross the value of what was paid on the 1st position loan, there is a spike in foreclosures.

Foreclosure rates in Green Valley Ranch

just to add some more perspective…

An example of a highly localized collapse of home prices common in many cities.

It’s something to think about. It’s not just a matter of a few bad loans, lost jobs and problems paying health expenses, for many neighborhoods that may be close to a similar tipping point. Because of the substantial amount of money invested into Green Valley Ranch, I would expect that they’ll recover from the collapse within 5 years as the foreclosure sales work through the system. For other neighborhoods in Denver, I’m a lot less optimistic.

The real estate market usually is subject to certain cyclical phenomena that vary by area. In Denver, winter usually brings a slowdown in the real estate market, marked by slightly lower prices and sales volume. Typically as early as January or February the seasonal market begins to turn around. Well..not this year.

This chart is a stochastic representation of real estate sales prices over the last couple years. I love technical analysis, almost to a fault. In evaluating stocks, charts like these help traders identify trends and compare the current market price to past prices to identify opportunities. To keep it simple, when the blue line crosses up through the red line, this marks the best time to buy in the market. When the blue line crosses down through the red line that’s when you should sell. When prices go one way when the stochastic suggests another, that’s when there might be a trend reversal coming.

Imagine how many REALTOR friends you would have if you bought and sold that often. Thankfully, this model is usually only applied to stocks. A stock’s liquidity makes it possible for it to be bought and sold in shortened time spans. While it is a poor tool for evaluating the length of a trend and potential buying opportunities, it’s great at determining cycles and safer entry and exit points.

Here are a few things you might notice by examining your market in this way.
1. When is typically the best time of year to buy a home? If we look at the chart, it becomes obvious that the best time to buy a home would be between August and February. Of course, if you look at the actually sales stats, you would notice that August might just be the best month to buy a home during the year because not only is there a slight drop in pricing, there is a larger supply of homes to chose from. Deep down, I would never suggest that you rely on the time of year as the number one reason to buy or sell a home, but it always helps to know where you’re at in the cycle so you know what to expect.

2. How has the credit crunch affected home sales in Denver? From my observations, the availability of credit for lower income and even middle income buyers with lower credit scores has significantly slowed the market. Notice how the chart shows a longer, flatter curve all the way into April (2008) compared to previous years with the market bottoming between December and February. This means sellers can expect continued pressure on high home prices. It doesn’t mean things aren’t selling, it just means your going to need to work harder, show better and price lower than you used to.

3. How long will this last? Who really knows. I wouldn’t expect to see stability return next year at this time without significant improvements in the economy. (I here Microsoft wants more sun and is considering Denver…not really but that’s the instant boom I’m looking for.) Additionally, if REALTOR’s out there still think next year will be better, think again. Foreclosures are driving the market down by far out weighing the slowing local economy. Until lender owned inventory starts drying up, expect more of the incredible buying opportunities and poor selling prices. That being said, I’m keeping an eye on the price of ownership when compared to renting, the ratio of home prices to median income, the economy and inflation. There are encouraging signs and improving signs in many of these statistics.

If you saw one of my previous posts regarding the real estate bubble, you would know I don’t believe Denver is a true bubble candidate and thus has a shorter fall. I would expect that prices would continue to decline through Spring of 2009 finally bottoming during that Summer. I wouldn’t expect an immediate recovery either. Prices will likely stabilize before racing back up. Denver homes will start to look pretty affordable by spring of 2010. To arrive at that, you have to make a few leaps of faith regarding inflation, demand and foreclosures peaking this summer. But I’m sure I’m still more accurate than NAR’s method.
Sometimes though, an opportunity can come along that would likely never come again. Housing is very inconsistent and resists almost every opportunity to have an absolute value price. Most great opportunities will appear only for a couple of days before a savvy waiting investor would pounce. At this moment there are hundreds of homes in Denver that didn’t last a week on the market before being snatched up. If it’s a good deal, it’s a good deal. Who cares if you could of saved $5000 here or there when you get what you want and it has a great long term outlook either for you and your family, your pocket book or both?

Not to mention, the smart money loves these down turns. They need them to get into positions they couldn’t normally get into in strong upswings.

A long bottom can represent a real opportunity for some people in some areas. Of course, in most instances, we don’t usually refer to ourselves as the smart money, though we all wish it to be true.

If you know me, you know that this is what I do.  I want to know why and how, so, I did a little checking in the MLS and public records.

  The unit I saw had previously sold for $204k but was now listed at $60,000 in a building that every unit had previously sold for over $150k.  A few even sold for up to $250k.   What makes it suspicious is that there were no real upgrades to justify 204k.  In fact, the value today is probably about $80,000 if it was cleaned out.   No electrical or plumbing upgrades to the building.  Some newer windows and a few new light fixtures in the hallway.  That’s it.    Now it is possible to get $160,000 for this type of unit if it’s done right.

 Some developers who do a killer job on the conversions do make top dollar.  They add roof top decks, change the curb appeal, improve all the common elements and put about $30,000-$60,000 into each unit upgrading the kitchen, bathrooms and finishes.  The units I saw at this place weren’t like that.   For this building though, the appraiser would have to be blind not to notice that the doors were missing handles and nothing that was described in the MLS was actually completed. (business center, fitness room, etc..) 

It’s painful to see because you really don’t get a redo on a condo conversion.  It’s to late.  The building is still a dump.  Can you imagine trying to coordinate an overhaul of the building with 24 different owners.  It’s going to be a blight to the neighborhood for a long time.

They bought the property for $2.9 mill and sold the units for a total of $4.8.   15 days after they closed on the property, they were already selling them.  6 at a time.  Many of the buyers bought multiple units.   They were 80% sold out in 2 months.  In the middle of winter during 2005-2006.  That was not a great time for selling condos,  even nice ones.

It seems like if you wanted to make 1.8 million fast the dirty way, you could get people who were going to file bankruptcy purchase these properties using stated 80/20 loans.  The paper values would support the apparent protection of the 1st lender and the 2nd would be carried back by the seller.  It’s all just funny money right?  Seller kicks back some money to the buyers for the ’service’.  The buyers then try to rent the properties out and never make a payment.  When it all goes south, they just walk and let the properties foreclose.   Now, I’m not saying that is what happened here, but I do think it happens.

I know there are people who believe that the only one they’re hurting when they do this is the lender.  That frustrates me.  It gives the entire industry a bad name.  Especially when a lot of people need to work together to decieve the lender.  It’s no wonder that the agent that listed the property had his license just long enough to do this deal then leave the business by going inactive.  The building had been listed as having an agent owner so he must have been involved.  I wonder what his employing broker was thinking.  Probably wasn’t.  I wonder if the buyers weren’t actually in on it and had their credit ruined by an investor who made a lot of promises he didn’t deliver on.

I’d love to give you the address and name the players…but that seems to get people in trouble.  No, I can’t flat out say that there is some fraud involved but it makes you wonder doesn’t it.

 I recently sold a home in the Village at Centennial  near the Denver Tech Center where the builder was offering the same home at $505,000 even though they hadn’t sold a home like it for more than $450,000.   In fact, the majority of the similar home sales were around $425-$440k.  This method has helped the builders maintain their net in the face of foreclosures appearing on the market.  In fact, it actually helps keep the lenders from pricing their homes to low.  The BPO (Broker Price Opinions) usually include price of homes that are currently for sale.  So even though the foreclosed homes are trashed out, they are priced just under what  the builder will accept new.  And of course, the buyers leave like they’re getting a great deal.

I talked to the sales rep in the office about their current inventory and he admitted that he had the ability to move as much as 15% off of the list price depending on the ‘read’ he got off of the customer.  That’s the sort of thing that doesn’t bode well for the current homeowners that may have paid too much.  Especially when they get in a need to sell situation like a job change.  It also tells me that most unrepresented buyers are like deer in headlights when they walk into the sales office.

Funny part is, most buyers still fall for the ‘base price’ system where they hook you with a lower price while showing you a better product in the model.  They then either raise the price or act like their giving you a deal by offering you incentives in upgrades. 

When a builder is offering $50,000 in upgrades, it makes you wonder, how did they arrive at that number?

A study released on October 31,2007 by S&P Case-Shiller shows Denver leading the country in price appreciation.  While the numbers are not staggering, Denver’s subtle growth marks a stark contrast from the drastic price drops of other cities across the United States.

  The study measures changes in price of a single home that is sold twice over a period of time.  The Case/Shiller method is considered to be one of the most accurate ways to measure valuation changes over time.

 Most of Denver’s price growth actually happened prior to 2000 while Denver’s economy was growing hand over fist.  Denver’s growth since 2000 has lagged behind other major cities that have garnered national attention as speculative buying and building pushed home prices to new highs.   When Denver’s economy suffered from the tech crash in 2001, many cities with diversified economies rolled on.  Cities across the country were reaching for new highs as Denver was finding it’s foothold. 

    Denver’s home values have not extended significantly past what the local populations can afford and are willing to pay.  That is why you haven’t seen the drastic price drops.  Are the prices high?  Could be.  The suburbs have shown some slowing becuase of competition from new construction.  Some parts of the cities didn’t have any justifiable reason for a growth in price since there were no improvements or changes in the areas.  Much of Denver has gone through a reniacance of sorts.  Small areas of commercial interest have been revamped to create value in the the surrounding neighborhoods.   The areas that haven’t seen this sort of investment and increased interest have faltered now that the going has gotten tough.  As a whole and without seeing a real reason related to the local economy, I don’t see any reason that Denver won’t at the very least keep pace with inflation. 

  In many other cities, home values have extended beyond what the local economies can support.  When that happens, the market slows down until the local economy can support the growth.   Without a growing economy and investments in the area, there is simply no good reason to see growth beyond that of inflation. 

  In the City of Denver there have been lots of changes.    Lots of investments in local businesses and a strengthening economy equate to a stronger demand for housing.  Just because a few home owners got in over their heads with loans they probably shouldn’t of got, should the rest of Denver residents lump themselves in with what’s being said about real estate from the rest of the country?  I don’t believe so. 

  It is far too early to tell how much Denver will continue to be affected by the continued negative media coverage but it is apparent that problems that are facing the rest of the country are not the same as the problems facing Denver.    It’s hard to believe that people in Miami, Los Angeles or Las Vegas could even think that their growth could be sustainable.

    Thus the old adage, “All real estate is local.”