1464 S Benton St - FlatGrass Realty

We have had multiple offers at, above and below the list price from investors willing to pay cash. Why? Because investors work from what it could be worth to them rather than the list price. Most of the offers (not all) we received from traditional buyers tended to net a value under the list price. If the traditional buyer did their homework, they would know that the home is worth much more than the list price. The list price was just a tool to attract attention or to get a cash buyer involved. The same home down the block sold earlier this year for around $170,000 and that wasn’t even a full remodel. This home could fetch $175,00-$180,000 with a good remodel.

This home’s value is being held down by a handful of local foreclosures that though comparable on paper, sold in days to investors. Some of which have already been flipped. I’m guessing most agents didn’t take the time to look at what it could be worth, the ‘adjusted retail value’ of the property.
This is just one example, if you want to see lot’s of examples, take a look at the HUD bid statistics that come out each week. You’ll be able to see all the bids. You’ll notice that the vast majority of buyers make a ‘shot in the dark’ approach to their bid rather than considering the actual value of the home. That’s frustrating for me to watch. Whereas I’m working to attract an investor offer, HUD prioritizes owner occupants over investors. This can be a great opportunity for the average buyer to put themselves into a home with a great equity position. If only they (or their agent) would do the math.

New Federal law effective from August until December 31, 2012 says they can stay through their previous lease as long as they continue to honor the terms of the lease. Alternatively, a 90 day notice is given for the renters to vacate.

You can see more of it here.

I’ve always tried to take the best photos possible for my listings. Sometimes it means making multiple trips to the listing just to get the right lighting. Recently though, I began employing new HDR (high dynamic range) photography techniques using my digital SLR camera that have significantly improved both quality of the pictures and the number of showings I get to my listings.

Often, HDR techniques are used for an artistic rendered effect but you can often take advantage of the process for difficult shots you would otherwise be unable to get.

Before I say how we do it, I just wanted to emphasize why you should. Most agents, take below average to slightly better than average photos. The key word in that sentence was “average”. I don’t want to be average. I want to look like the best. The way listings appear on the internet or on your local MLS will most likely be in the context of other home photos. I want to be the best on that list. I promise you, that even agents can be influenced by the photos. If an agent has 50 possible homes to show and will only have time to show 10-15 in a day (that’s a lot of homes), the agent has to screen out the good ones. Assuming that the homes are fairly similar, it often will come down to having the right photos.

Of course, you could just hire the local Obeo photographer or someone similar who offers a photography and virtual tour service. I use them too. But lots of other agents do too. Besides, don’t you want to do more than the next agent? Being better, especially when it comes to the visuals, will go along way in a listing apointment. But who wants to be slightly better than average? (If you answered “I do”, you should read “The Dip“.)

Think of it like this. When you watch a basketball game and you see the guy dunk over the defender. Just remember, nobody wants to be the guy being dunked over. (Here’s an example if you want to think about it some more) I would rather be the guy that is dunking. I don’t feel bad about it. It’s not my fault if other agents are not doing all they can.

Point is that being average isn’t the goal. More eyes, means more showings, which becomes more sales. I’m not saying that you should alter your photos, rather take use of modern technology that lets you take photos that previously only talented photographers using special film and dark room techniques could achieve.

Here’s what I’m talking about. On the left is the picture from the professional photographer (who I also hire) on the right, my photo.
In the Washington Park neighborhood, 900 S Vine. The professional’s usually do a decent enough job on the inside but usually don’t do anything more than a representational shot for the outside. When I decided to reshoot the front photo, it was winter so the trees didn’t look as nice anymore and the front was enclosed by flower boxes that had vines in them…the vines end up looking like dead twigs. To get around this, I went in close with my wide angle lens and did a long exposure HDR series before the street lights came on and made everything orange. Here’s the difference.

Here’s another example of 13706 E Weaver Ave, in Centennial, CO which just went under contract. North facing homes like this can be difficult to get good photo of, especially during the winter. HDR helps you get around that.

You can do the same for your interior photographs as well…

While everyone is going to have their own ideas about what they think is the better photo, in my experience, it’s really about what is going to ‘jump off the page more’. High dynamic range photography can help you get your properties noticed.

The process is simple, 3 or more exposures (minimum if you’re not shooting ‘in RAW’) bracketed 1 or 2 stops apart to achieve a series of under exposed, correct and over exposed photos (or sim), all from the same location using a tripod.

These photos are then merged into one HDR file that will then need to be rendered using a process that controls the ‘development’ process along the same ways photo technicians might ‘burn’ and ‘dodge’ a photo to make darker areas lighter or lighter areas darker. Only with digital, this process can be automated. My current software of choice is PhotoMatix but you can achieve the same results in new versions of Photoshop (CS3+) if that’s what you have.

This isn’t as hard as it looks, you can download the trial version of PhotoMatix and see for yourself. You may just be able to put to use that nice camera you bought.

These shots represent my first and second attempts at this, so I offer my apologies to the truly talented photographers out there as I run afoul their techniques and the execution of their art.

Here’s and example of the Green Valley Subdivision in Denver, Colorado

Notice that once current home values cross the value of what was paid on the 1st position loan, there is a spike in foreclosures.

Foreclosure rates in Green Valley Ranch

just to add some more perspective…

An example of a highly localized collapse of home prices common in many cities.

It’s something to think about. It’s not just a matter of a few bad loans, lost jobs and problems paying health expenses, for many neighborhoods that may be close to a similar tipping point. Because of the substantial amount of money invested into Green Valley Ranch, I would expect that they’ll recover from the collapse within 5 years as the foreclosure sales work through the system. For other neighborhoods in Denver, I’m a lot less optimistic.

“If you don’t like this offer, you won’t like the next.”

Often times, foresight and taking action are more useful than waiting for the perfect approach. There is a lost time cost that needs to be considered.

Confidence is at the core of the problem. Perhaps we shouldn’t call it confidence, as at this point, that term is almost laughable. We’ll call it “faith”. Faith that you’ll have a job and you will continue to make a living is central to being a good little consumer. Faith in businesses is at the core of how a business may raise money to cover their operating expenses. Faithful businesses lend money as they hold the belief that the vast majority of people and other businesses they lend to are good for it (What if they’re wrong?). Faithful consumers, spend money between paychecks using credit cards because they can count on that check (What if they lose their jobs?). What happens as the once faithful businesses begin to doubt that they’ll be paid back (What if we don’t get paid for that last invoice?). What happens when the once faithful consumers can’t get credit or know that soon they could be out of a job. When minor liquidity problems turn into a financial ‘ice age’, what then?

One only wonders how Bernanke and Paulson could keep people in the ‘pews’ and involved in the day to day business of being a good consumer if those people lose their faith in the system entirely. If those people begin to feel that they could be out of a job next week what effect does that have. How much will that cost the economy. What happens when they feel that everything they’ve worked for, their house and their savings, could be lost. Heaven forbid they even take a look at their 401k plan. Pretty soon people would be (some already are) stuffing their mattresses with money and buying gold bars.

Think of Washington Mutual, people lacked faith that it was safe. They felt it was not safe enough to hold their money and not safe enough to be lent money even short term. People start pulling money out of the bank. Their credit rating gets cut down to that they can no longer raise money. Soon enough their $310 Billion in illiquid (frozen) assets are taken from them and sold to JPMorgan for $1.9 Billion where the ‘thawed out’ assets are instantly worth much more.

The concept that the value of a business, an asset, or your dollar is determined by market forces presupposes that there is a market. What happens when there is no market? That being said, bail away. Take action to establish that there is a market. Draw a line in the sand or something.

The real estate market usually is subject to certain cyclical phenomena that vary by area. In Denver, winter usually brings a slowdown in the real estate market, marked by slightly lower prices and sales volume. Typically as early as January or February the seasonal market begins to turn around. Well..not this year.

This chart is a stochastic representation of real estate sales prices over the last couple years. I love technical analysis, almost to a fault. In evaluating stocks, charts like these help traders identify trends and compare the current market price to past prices to identify opportunities. To keep it simple, when the blue line crosses up through the red line, this marks the best time to buy in the market. When the blue line crosses down through the red line that’s when you should sell. When prices go one way when the stochastic suggests another, that’s when there might be a trend reversal coming.

Imagine how many REALTOR friends you would have if you bought and sold that often. Thankfully, this model is usually only applied to stocks. A stock’s liquidity makes it possible for it to be bought and sold in shortened time spans. While it is a poor tool for evaluating the length of a trend and potential buying opportunities, it’s great at determining cycles and safer entry and exit points.

Here are a few things you might notice by examining your market in this way.
1. When is typically the best time of year to buy a home? If we look at the chart, it becomes obvious that the best time to buy a home would be between August and February. Of course, if you look at the actually sales stats, you would notice that August might just be the best month to buy a home during the year because not only is there a slight drop in pricing, there is a larger supply of homes to chose from. Deep down, I would never suggest that you rely on the time of year as the number one reason to buy or sell a home, but it always helps to know where you’re at in the cycle so you know what to expect.

2. How has the credit crunch affected home sales in Denver? From my observations, the availability of credit for lower income and even middle income buyers with lower credit scores has significantly slowed the market. Notice how the chart shows a longer, flatter curve all the way into April (2008) compared to previous years with the market bottoming between December and February. This means sellers can expect continued pressure on high home prices. It doesn’t mean things aren’t selling, it just means your going to need to work harder, show better and price lower than you used to.

3. How long will this last? Who really knows. I wouldn’t expect to see stability return next year at this time without significant improvements in the economy. (I here Microsoft wants more sun and is considering Denver…not really but that’s the instant boom I’m looking for.) Additionally, if REALTOR’s out there still think next year will be better, think again. Foreclosures are driving the market down by far out weighing the slowing local economy. Until lender owned inventory starts drying up, expect more of the incredible buying opportunities and poor selling prices. That being said, I’m keeping an eye on the price of ownership when compared to renting, the ratio of home prices to median income, the economy and inflation. There are encouraging signs and improving signs in many of these statistics.

If you saw one of my previous posts regarding the real estate bubble, you would know I don’t believe Denver is a true bubble candidate and thus has a shorter fall. I would expect that prices would continue to decline through Spring of 2009 finally bottoming during that Summer. I wouldn’t expect an immediate recovery either. Prices will likely stabilize before racing back up. Denver homes will start to look pretty affordable by spring of 2010. To arrive at that, you have to make a few leaps of faith regarding inflation, demand and foreclosures peaking this summer. But I’m sure I’m still more accurate than NAR’s method.
Sometimes though, an opportunity can come along that would likely never come again. Housing is very inconsistent and resists almost every opportunity to have an absolute value price. Most great opportunities will appear only for a couple of days before a savvy waiting investor would pounce. At this moment there are hundreds of homes in Denver that didn’t last a week on the market before being snatched up. If it’s a good deal, it’s a good deal. Who cares if you could of saved $5000 here or there when you get what you want and it has a great long term outlook either for you and your family, your pocket book or both?

Not to mention, the smart money loves these down turns. They need them to get into positions they couldn’t normally get into in strong upswings.

A long bottom can represent a real opportunity for some people in some areas. Of course, in most instances, we don’t usually refer to ourselves as the smart money, though we all wish it to be true.

the “deal with the owner is independent of the owners deal with the bank.”  … “Generally speaking, the rights of the lender are greater than the rights of the tenant.”

Seems reasonable enough but I can’t help but wonder about the fairness of that. 

 What about a tenants right to quiet enjoyment?

   I wonder if the tenant shouldn’t contact an attorney.  Wouldn’t the tenant have a claim of non-performance?

Regardless, if you or someone you know in Colorado are facing problems with foreclosure, you should definitely contact an attorney if you have any questions about your rights.

You should also take advantage of the Colorado Foreclosure Hotline at 1-877-601-HOPE (4673).

This is how it would work.  You would pick some area that seems ripe with a financially viable, tech savvy group of people in need of information and hopefully a new home.  What type of information would you feed them?….oh…everything of course.  You see, you would figure out everything your ‘peeps’ are interested in and pipe it to them fresh by blog and RSS feed.  High School player bios, the latest track results, and who’s cat had kittens….people love that stuff right?   All the good stuff.  They wouldn’t be able to get enough, so they would come back without having to be prompted by other means.  Of course you would go neighborhood viral worse than like little Johnny fresh out of kindergarten.

 People would stumble across the site on Google and many others would find it on flyers/mailing that would eventually be phased out once the web presence took over.  Then,  your constant craving for the information I have would keep you coming back like some sort crack head.  You wouldn’t be able to get enough.   Of course all the while I would be subliminally establishing myself as an expert in your area.  The perfect person to sell  your home and the best resource for a buyer.

While all of this sounds great, my gut feeling on this is that it’s not quite possible/likely yet.  I personally am not pursuing this approach to blogging locally.  I am working on some approaches to this but an online newsletter it shan’t be.  I can imagine a client being a little put off by the fact that you just decided that your going to insert yourself into their lives.  I’m on record as saying I don’t think you jack black bencasino gratuites frcasino island blackjackblack jack daveycasino bonus de bienvenueregle jeu roulettewww traiteur casinobonus gratuitsjeu roulette casinojouer video pokerbonus gratuites de casinojack black spider mancomment gagner à la roulette en ligneregle de la rouletteslot machine gametelecharger jeu poker texasjouer seven card stud gratuitesle poker en ligne en françaispoker en ligne bruelentrainement poker gratuitesjouer au poker sans telechargerle poker apprendre à jouerpoker le jeujeux de poker sur internetpoker gratuites sans telechargementworld poker gratuitesjeu de pokerjeu poker freewaretelecharger poker holdpoker en ligne argent virtuelpoker holdem gratuitesjeu de carte pokerjeux poker tour en lignepoker online argentjeux 7 card stud gratuitespoker en ligne francaistour de pokerjouer au poker onlinejeu javalogiciel poker texas holdemjeux pokerjouer poker en ligne gratuitementtournoi texas holdemtelecharger jeu poker gratuitesstrip poker gratuitementpoker sans internetle jeu du pokersalle poker onlinepoker source onlinepoker texas gratuites can be a successful hyper-local blogger unless you live there, have kids, grew up there or have some other attachment that people can use to relate to you on a personal level.  Maybe you should open your office there.

I have some concerns about the hyper-local approach because it seems to be a house of cards built on a card table. 

The card table is the premise that you are filling a need.   The idea that people will continue to choose area experts since everyone charges the same.  The idea that an agent that sells in one subdivision is not qualified to sell in another.    Can you imagine the tedium involved in putting this together?  Tedious as it is, it is possible it could pay off.  Especially if you’re making the comparison to established agents who are using the old fashioned methods successfully but will that transfer well to the Internet? 

Here’s a few more random thoughts, questions and observations that should be considered before starting down this path.  I wouldn’t say you shouldn’t attempt this approach, but rather, I would attempt to resolve these conflicts or plan ways to address the potential issues early in your development process.

1. Brokers need the people,  but people don’t need you.  Is what you got fresh enough to be news to them?  Would they even care to read your stuff?
2. There’s a small matter of trust and privacy. “I don’t want you taking pictures of my kids or anything.”
3. Who Voted you Mayor?  Would they feel you need their permission?
4. This sounds like an incredible amount of work.   Is it sustainable?
5. Will this create a steep barrier to entry?
6. Who is better positioned to do this same job?  Will they take you out at the knees next year?
7. Will the shrinking real estate margins crimp your projected profit?
8. Will this work if you’re competing against an established farm agent?
9. Where do people currently get the information you will offer?
10. How much will it cost to market the blog or will you rely on Google to deliver people to you from the subdivision you’re targeting?

Correct me if I’m wrong, I’ve seen lots of attempts at local blogging but haven’t seen anyone suggest that they’re ‘killing’ it with this method.  A deal or 2 here and there doesn’t deem the method an absolute success.  Even the most successful national bloggers don’t put up numbers that match top farm agent numbers.  While there might be 20 agents makeing the high 6 figures in a big city, the big time local bloggers aren’t among them.   It makes me think the hyper-local approach is over-hyped and merely a new topic for a real estate conferences to ponder and theorize about. 

I personally have researched many of the agents locally that blog as their primary rain maker and it really isn’t that impressive.  It’s a living.  It’s not a surprise really,  I feel they get a fair return on their invested time and money but I’m personally willing to trade money for time if it gets me to the same point or better.   

  The method doesn’t approach the numbers that standard farming brings in.   I’m left with the thought, that if you don’t have any ideas to generate business and you have a very limited budget, this can’t hurt.  I’m sure there are tons of agents out there that have the time to focus on this.   The 2 biggest problems with this is that the Internet hasn’t achieved a true hyper-local capability yet though I would expect that to change.  Second,  I’m not convinced that people would be any more likely to use you than the other guy that got some face time with the potential clients. 

As for the house of cards analogy, once you have it all built and up and running, people using you and all…how easy would it be to knock down.  Will you be able to keep up or will competition take over where you left off.

  Here’s a tip.  Your clients probably Googled you.  Blogging is key to your business because people use the Internet for research.  Especially so when it comes to real estate.  You have a chance to create your own spin, your own buzz.  Potential clients get to know you anonymously  and make decisions about your expertise and qualifications prior to making contact.  Even after meeting you they may want to learn more about you.   

 Just a few thoughts.  Here’s some further reading on the subject:

• Seth’s Blog – Advice for real estate agents (quit now!)
• Jeff Brown – House Agents — Wanna Start the New Year Kickin’ Ass? Here’s How  - My apologies to Jeff for not getting back to the subject sooner.  I had to ‘wrap my mind around it’ some more.
• Life that Pops – Everything new is old

 There is a lot said there and in the comments that might trigger some new thoughts on the subject for you. 

 With the rise in foreclosures and more agents being the first people to enter recently vacant homes after and possibly during a foreclosure, a little education can go along way for your own safety and the safety of your clients.  Going into homes before they’re ‘trashed out’ can mean just about anything these days.