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You are here: Home / 2007 / Archives for January 2007

Most Denver Homes are Overpriced

January 8, 2007 by Spencer Barron

That’s not new though. Buyer’s market, seller’s market, blah blah blah. What does it mean really? Homes are always overpriced. Always have been.

Most homes are overpriced. Through good and bad, sellers usually overprice their homes. The average active list price for a single family home in Denver for 2006 was 20% higher than the average list price of the homes that sell. That’s why in a typical month between 5% and 10% of all listings on the market expire without selling.

Denver sold price list price comparison

Sellers need time to soften up. Most sellers don’t let their home go for much less than the asking price in Denver. A typical Denver home sells for 2% less than the list price.

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… read more

Filed Under: Denver, Denver Real Estate, FSBO, statistics

Timing the market – Real Estate Slow Stochastic

January 5, 2007 by Spencer Barron

Just for fun, I wanted to take the pricing data stats from my previous post about market timing and apply a slow stochastic to the prices.

Here’s essentially how they work with stocks.

stochastic example google

On the lower part of the image is an example of a slow stochastic. A buy signal is interpreted when the %k (green line) crosses up over the %d (white line). This is most important when value is crossing up from 30. A sell signal is the opposite. When %k is crossing down over %d from 75 (numbers on left). Go ahead and ignore the right numbers and red line for now. Essentially stochastics are trailing indicators of price trends. Trading decisions should never be made entirely from an indicator. It’s just an illustration of a trend over a time period. Depending on the time period you’re looking at, long-term and short-term trends can be identified.

Now, that being said. Here’s a slow stochastic showing short term (seasonal) market trends for the Denver Real Estate Market.

denver real estate sales stochastic

The stochastic demonstrates the change in price trends

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Filed Under: Business, Denver Real Estate, General Interest, Investing, statistics, Stock Market

Denver Sales Statistics – Trying to time the Market? When to sell and when to buy.

January 5, 2007 by Spencer Barron

Of course, the standard Realtor response is ‘it’s always a good time to sell’. I’ve even heard agents say that the holidays have no effect on sales. I personally think that is just a sales pitch to make them look good, because the statistics are fairly clear. It definitely looks cyclical to me.

If you’re looking for a serious answer, though, you want it based on fact. Buyers and sellers don’t care if you closed a deal this month, they just want to know the truth about when is the best time to buy and sell a home. I’ve been reviewing the year end statistics for 2006. I’m of course looking in order to give my clients a better understanding of what to expect next year but some things are jumping out at me. We see DOM reaching a new high in December for Denver as a whole. But let’s focus on the topic of market timing. First off, at what time of year do home sellers get the highest price?

Denver Home Sales

These are the average home prices for Denver over the last 3 years. You’ll notice that …

… read more

Filed Under: Denver Real Estate, General Interest, statistics

Real Estate Goals for 2007 Group Writing Project

January 5, 2007 by Spencer Barron

BiggerPockets is hosting a real estate goal writing project to kick off 2007. Oh, I know, by telling everyone my goals I’ll be motivated by the fear of failing in the sight of my peers. It’s all so Anthony Robbins. I’m terrible with goals. I’ll probably just pick the goals I like off other people’s posts. After all, if someone else had a better goal than my own and we both succeeded, I would still be the loser. You follow? What if by failing last year’s goals, I’m actually reducing my self-esteem for the following year? It could be a never-ending spiral. Maybe I should start my goals with some easy things just to build some momentum.

  1. ‘Take ten’ – minutes each morning to pet my wife’s cats, sip my coffee, watch the sun come up (I’m never up that early)…whatever I want before I start working.
  2. Chew my food – My wife says I eat too fast. It comes from growing up in a large family. Seven people at the table, six servings of dessert. (And I love dessert.)
  3. Don’t go to work - I know what you’re thinking, it’s the whole ‘if you’re doing what you love’ thing, but that’s not it at all. I sat in various offices with those flickering fluorescent lights for the last ten years. Be in at 8:30, half-hour lunch, “We need this done by Monday but we can’t afford the overtime right now.” NO MORE! ….oh and maybe just a touch of “if your love what you’re doing….”
  4. Pollute the Blogmos - Read something good everyday and write at least one mediocre post every other day.
  5. Fend off Alzheimer’s – They say learning a language helps. I recently purchased Pimsleur’s French course before a trip to St. Barths. I’ve only been through 3 of the 48 CDs. I figure a feeling of self achievement will help with lots of other areas of life, including real estate. Real estate isn’t that complicated; I feel like my brain is beginning to atrophy.
  6. Update my image – Maybe it’s time to get some of those cheesy broker photos done. While I’m at it, I should improve my website and consolidate some of the tools I’m currently paying for into one place I could be proud of.
  7. !Warning – Shameless self-promotion follows! No really, everything for me next year will be about self-promotion. I’d like to double my sphere of influence and my client base.
  8. Make a Living – How about some Cash Flow – The one downfall with real estate is that to succeed, you’re going to have spend a lot of money. I spent more money on advertising this year than I made in half of 2005. You always know you’re two months away from being broke. I’m looking to find a way to create a more steady income this year with steady advertising and perhaps some ancillary businesses.

The theme for this year would be to find balance between the different facets of my life in order to operate at a peak level all year. We’ll see how it goes.

Technorati Tags: BiggerPockets, goals

Filed Under: Business, Denver Real Estate

Why Johnny Can't Code and How to Help Him

January 3, 2007 by CurtisBarron

Cant Code?When Bill Gates was 13, a parents group enabled his school to buy a Teletype machine and computer time on a remote GE computer that used the BASIC programming language; he, Paul Allen, and others became intrigued by the technology, including obviously the immediate feedback they got from programming in an easy programming language. He went on to learn other languages, found Microsoft and become a gazillionare.

Does that mean that if your sons or daughters learn about computers using BASIC that they too will earn googol dollars? Well… probably not. If not, might they understand the computer better if they do? Well…. maybe.

Being interested in programming by profession and by inclination, I came across by sheer chance an article in Salon.com entitled “Why Johnny Can’t Code” by David Brin. By 12/31/06 it had attracted 297 comments and over 300 blog reactions….

… read more

Filed Under: Education, Guest post, Programming, Technology

FSBO – Creepy home for sale

January 2, 2007 by Spencer Barron

You know that creepy home you’ve always wanted? It’s for sale.

backofhouseinteriorshot

This “gem” is from a recent Craigslist post by an owner trying to FSBO his home. I’m always on the lookout for a fix-n-flip, but I think I’m going to pass on this one.

sideofhouse2

It’s important in real estate investing to know your limits. Figure out the type and size of project that you would be willing to take on before you start looking. Otherwise, you’ll rush yourself and overlook obvious things just because you’re so anxious to get started.

I bought a creepy home once. It sent chills down my spine every time I walked through the door. I would buy a lot of different homes, homes that need work, homes with structural damage, homes with bad neighbors or even backing to a busy street. But from now on, I’m going to draw the line at creepy.

Technorati Tags: Real, Estate, FSBO, Creepy, home

Filed Under: Denver Real Estate, FSBO, General Interest, Investing
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