Denver Sales Statistics – Trying to time the Market? When to sell and when to buy.

Of course, the standard Realtor response is ‘it’s always a good time to sell’. I’ve even heard agents say that the holidays have no effect on sales. I personally think that is just a sales pitch to make them look good, because the statistics are fairly clear. It definitely looks cyclical to me.

If you’re looking for a serious answer, though, you want it based on fact. Buyers and sellers don’t care if you closed a deal this month, they just want to know the truth about when is the best time to buy and sell a home. I’ve been reviewing the year end statistics for 2006. I’m of course looking in order to give my clients a better understanding of what to expect next year but some things are jumping out at me. We see DOM reaching a new high in December for Denver as a whole. But let’s focus on the topic of market timing. First off, at what time of year do home sellers get the highest price?

These are the average home prices for Denver over the last 3 years. You’ll notice that home prices peak in June of each year. This summer strength continues for longer periods when the market is hot like it was in 2004. If you subtract the average days on market from this peak pricing you would arrive at March or April as being the best time to list your home for a top sale price.

This isn’t saying you couldn’t get an excellent price at a different time of year, but it does suggest there are more buyers during the spring and summer. It also depends a lot on interest rates. Low interest rates put more buyers in the market and put pressure on prices to rise.

What’s the worst time to sell and the best time to get the best price when buying?

First off, the common thought would be in December. The holidays tend to shift buyers’ focus. Money may be tight during the holidays, putting first time home buyers in a pinch. Many sellers looking to relocate can’t sell and thus can’t buy, decreasing the pool of buyers even further. This can be a great opportunity for a buyer to pick up a good deal. That is, if they can find something they like; typically inventory is depleted and picked through. I personally have an even better time of year for buyers. The stats suggest that you can pick up end of summer deals as sellers begin to lose their nerve going into fall and want to move on. We see price dips at the end of September and October in all of the past 3 years.

When buying you should base your decision off what time of year is going to work best for you. Averages can be deceiving. There is the likelihood that you could still get a great deal in the middle of summer; there is going to be more competition, though.

You should base your decision to sell off what is going to work best for you. If you have an above average home, you can usually expect above average results. It’s all about how you compare to your competition. There is going to a minor difference in price between selling in March and selling in October. Wait if you can, and sell now if you have to. The real thing to remember is the market improves from January to June at which point it begins to decline.

All information courtesy of Metrolist for the period Jan 1, 2004 to December 31, 2006. Prepared by Spencer Barron.com

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